For retailers, November and December can make or break the whole year. Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas gifting drive a concentrated surge in orders, putting pressure on warehouse capacity, stock availability, staffing and delivery networks. The challenge is not simply to process more orders, but to do so without compromising accuracy, delivery times or the customer experience.
The scale of this challenge is clear from our own fulfilment data. Our average daily order volumes stand at 4,518, rising to 10,008 on the busiest day recorded in December last year – more than double the average. In total, 31% of annual orders are fulfilled in the fourth quarter, underlining how much retail activity is concentrated in the final months of the year.
For retailers, these figures highlight why peak planning needs to begin well before the first Black Friday promotion goes live. Here are five areas businesses should prioritise to prepare for the seasonal rush.
1. Forecast demand beyond the headline sales events
Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas are obvious focal points for peak planning, but retailers need to forecast demand across the entire November and December period rather than preparing for a single weekend.
Our own order data from November and December last year shows that the first week of December was the busiest, with volumes dropping significantly from 17 December. This illustrates how quickly demand can build and subside, and why capacity planning needs to reflect the shape of the season.
Retailers should analyse previous years’ order data alongside planned promotions, product launches, marketing campaigns and current sales trends. Forecasts should account for both expected demand and a higher-volume scenario, so businesses understand what happens if a campaign significantly outperforms expectations.
It is also important to identify the products most likely to drive demand. A small number of bestselling lines can account for a disproportionate share of orders, creating pressure on picking operations and increasing the risk of stockouts. Understanding which products are likely to move fastest allows retailers to prioritise inventory and warehouse capacity accordingly.
2. Make capacity and staffing decisions early
When daily orders more than double, every stage of the fulfilment process comes under pressure. Picking, packing, goods-in operations and carrier collections must all be able to handle the increased throughput.
Recruiting temporary workers is one option, but it should not be the entire strategy. Seasonal staff need training, clear processes and adequate supervision to work efficiently without increasing picking errors or dispatch delays. Leaving recruitment until November can limit the time available to prepare teams properly.
Retailers should assess their available labour against forecast demand and identify where additional support will be needed. They should also review warehouse layouts, picking routes and packing stations to remove unnecessary steps and reduce bottlenecks.
Working with a fulfilment partner can provide access to established infrastructure and additional operational capacity, but retailers should establish early how that capacity will be allocated during the busiest weeks. Clear service expectations, agreed volume forecasts and regular communication are essential.
3. Get stock in the right place before demand peaks
Strong sales forecasts are only useful if the stock is available to fulfil the resulting orders. Late inbound deliveries, inaccurate inventory records and unexpected demand for particular products can all undermine even the best-prepared operation.
Retailers should work backwards from their planned promotional dates to establish when stock needs to arrive at the warehouse, allowing sufficient time for goods to be received, checked and made available for sale. Suppliers should be briefed on deadlines, with contingency plans for delayed deliveries or unexpected shortages.
Inventory accuracy is equally important. Stock records need to reflect what is physically available, particularly when products are being sold across multiple channels. Overselling an item that is no longer in stock can lead to cancellations, disappointed customers and additional pressure on customer service teams.
Retailers should also identify their priority products and agree replenishment plans before the season begins. Monitoring sales velocity throughout November and December will help teams respond to changing demand and move stock where it is needed most.
4. Protect the customer experience when volumes rise
Peak season is a critical opportunity to acquire new customers, but a poor delivery experience can undermine the benefits of increased sales. Late dispatches, incorrect orders and limited delivery visibility can all damage customer confidence at the point when retailers are trying to build loyalty.
Maintaining service quality requires retailers to set realistic delivery promises based on actual operational capacity. Marketing campaigns and website messaging should be aligned with warehouse cut-off times and carrier collection schedules, rather than assuming that normal service levels can be maintained regardless of volume.
Businesses should also establish clear escalation procedures for unexpected spikes or operational disruption. Monitoring order backlogs, picking accuracy and dispatch performance in real time can help teams identify problems before they affect large numbers of customers.
Communication matters, too. Customers should receive accurate delivery information and prompt updates if circumstances change. A transparent approach can help manage expectations and reduce the volume of avoidable enquiries reaching customer service teams.
5. Plan for the returns surge before Christmas orders leave the warehouse
Peak planning doesn’t stop when the last Christmas order is dispatched. January brings a second operational challenge as unwanted gifts, unsuitable purchases and other returns flow back through the supply chain.
Across Fidelity Fulfilment, 5,732 returns were received in January, compared with an average of 3,120 in a typical month, an increase of 81%. Around 70% of returned stock is estimated to be resellable, making the speed and accuracy of returns processing very commercially important.
Retailers should forecast reverse-logistics volumes alongside outbound demand, ensuring they have the space, staffing and processes to receive and assess returned products. Clear procedures for inspecting goods, updating inventory records and returning suitable items to sale can help recover stock value more quickly.
Returns should also be considered when planning warehouse space and labour for the weeks immediately after Christmas. If resources are focused exclusively on outbound orders, returned stock can accumulate in the warehouse and remain unavailable for resale for longer than necessary.
Prepare now to protect peak performance
The busiest trading period of the year leaves little room for reactive decision-making. Retailers that wait until order volumes begin to rise may find that additional staff, warehouse capacity and stock cannot be brought online quickly enough to protect service levels.
The most effective approach is to use historical data to forecast demand, build realistic capacity plans, secure stock early and establish clear communication between retail, warehouse, fulfilment and delivery teams. Just as importantly, businesses need to plan for the entire seasonal cycle, including the returns that follow Christmas.
Peak season will always bring uncertainty, but preparation gives retailers greater control over how they respond. By addressing the operational challenges before November, businesses can put themselves in a stronger position to meet customer expectations, maximise the opportunity presented by seasonal demand and start the new year with a more resilient fulfilment operation.